Skip to main content

Grumblings and Silver Linings

I don't want to sound callous about the economic downturn and pain that it is definitely causing a great number of people, but some thoughts do come to mind as the cable noise machines start trotting out "personal interest" stories about folks in dire straights.

Noone wants to be the one to ask the pertinent questions -- except maybe Suze Orman -- about how they got to where they are.

Clearly, some people -- many, in fact -- have lived on credit for too long... and far outside what their REAL income should have allowed. It's a consumerism-driven trend that's been building for decades. (The same thing happened from 1899-1929, with similar results.)

But enough of the grumbling. Here's the silver lining (at least for me):

I estimate that my 401K will be worth 20% more in 15 years as I get ready to retire than if this downturn hadn't happened.

Why?

Because my contributions are going mostly to stock purchases -- stocks, like Chevron, that were trading at $90/share last year and are now hovering around $57/share.

Yes, I take a value hit on the portfolio right now (if I were to liquidate) -- but I am able to buy more shares (dollar for dollar) through my payroll contribution and company match. This gives me a premium that will really pay off as stock prices return to their historical P/E trends.

So -- I'm concerned, but not overly concerned. Cautious, but not fear-struck. That's a silver lining, as well.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

More On Energy: Supply, Demand and the Not-so-free Market

Speculators in the market have, rightly, been targeted for thier use of the Enron-loophole to basically compete (unfairly) in a market that is mixed between highly-regulated (see integrated oil companies) and unregulated players (see commodity brokers). This imbalance of power has led to the free flow of capital to a market from sources that a decade ago largely abandoned investment in oil companies -- in favor of the speculative bubble of the dotcom boom. That lack of capital infusion -- and the capital-intensive nature of the oil & gas business -- led to the mega-mergers of 1999 - 2001. Bear in mind that even with all that merger activity among the multi-nationals, their true competition is with national oil companies -- basically branches of their nation-state governments: Pemex (Mexico), Petrobras (Brazil), Pedevesas (Venezuala), Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), Cinoco (China) ... you get the picture. On the one end, you have national oil companies -- either in OPEC or non-aligned ...

Looking back...

It being "the thing to do" on New Years Eve, here are some of the things that came to my mind about the last decade: Houston & the Weather Tropical Storm Allison flooded Houston causing more than $5.5 B in damage and 41 deaths -- as usual, the story was overlooked by the national media because a) it was happening in Houston and b) they were manically covering the Timothy McVeigh execution countdown.  Were it not for 9/11, Allison would have been the largest disaster of 2001. Hurricane Katrina devasted the central Gulf Coast, flooding New Orleans with water and Houston with evacuees.  While the nation watched the Bush Administration fail in its duties, Mayor Bill White and the people of Houston stepped into the void -- providing shelter and a path forward for countless "new" Houstonians. Hurricane Rita taught us that our own hurricane plans were inadequate. Hurricane Gustav taught us how quickly a major storm could develop. Hurricane Ike showed how re...

Just Desserts: Double Peanut Butter Bars

This recipe takes the simple peanut butter cookie and "raises the bar"... with three layers: Peanut Butter Cookie on the bottom Rich peanut butter icing in the middle Topped with a chocolate shell Delicious and decadent! For the cookie base: Preheat oven to 350F.  Grease a 9x13 glass baking dish. 1 1/4 cup sugar 1 tablespoon dark molasses 1/2 cup creamy peanut buter 1/4 cup shortening 1/4 cup butter, softened 1 egg 1 1/4 cups flour 3/4 teaspoon baking soda 1/2 teaspoon baking powder 1/4 teaspoon salt Prepare peanut butter cookie dough (per normal recipe)  but do not refrigerate.  Instead, spread dough evenly on the bottom of the prepared baking dish. Bake for about 15-18 minutes.  Remove from oven and allow to cool completely.  For the middle layer: 1/2 cup butter, softened 1/2 cup creamy peanut butter 1 tablespoon milk 1 teaspoon vanilla 2 cups powdered sugar In a small bowl, beat the butter, peanut butter, milk, vanilla...