Wednesday, February 6, 2008

PostHeaderIcon Number Crunching

As I listen to the MSM narrative of Obama is bringing in record numbers of new / independent voters, I wondered if there were any actual numbers to back that up -- as opposed to the meme that Hillary has hit a ceiling.

I'm just now starting to crunch the numbers -- and maybe this isn't the right comparison -- but if you look at the MA vote (2004 Primary / 2004 General / 2008 Primary) -- from CNN vote totals:

Kerry (2004 Primary) = 440,929
Total (2004 Primary) = 598,929

Kerry (2004 General) = 1,803800

Compared with Clinton / Obama in the 2008 Primary
Clinton (2008 Primary) = ~611,839 @ 11:30 EST
Obama (2008 Primary) = ~433,394 @ 11:30 EST

Total Dem Primary Vote = short of 2004 general election total by ~ 700,000 votes; but beats primary vote total by about 400,000 votes.

Interestingly, Hillary beats the total 2004 primary vote total in MA but Obama's total is less than Kerry's primary vote total.

This is just one state, but I chose MA first because of the Kennedy factor.

Now, this was not contested in 2004, so one could say that 400,000 new voters were turned on by the contest (and the contestants). You can also say that Hillary's performance was at least enough to bring out more voters than the favored son did -- which means that BOTH Obama and Clinton are bringing in new voters... it's not just a one-sided phenomenon.

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